The search for new markets in a hostile geopolitical context

Trade tensions and military conflicts are complicating the internationalization activities of Italian companies. The issue is particularly urgent for a sector open to exports like that of agricultural mechanics

The past twelve months have been characterized by an acceleration of deglobalization processes and by the "tariff war" which has increasingly led to hostile geopolitical aims in different areas of the world. In this context, public institutions supporting the Italian system have promoted initiatives and tools to encourage market diversification by Italian companies. The year 2026 has thus opened – in the Middle East region – with a further escalation that is leading to an expansion of crisis areas and even wars, a scenario that increasingly forces companies to deal with complex and highly volatile market environments. These issues were addressed at the MAECI (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation) - Bank of Italy Conference held on April 2nd, entitled "A Turbulent World: Political Crises, Trade Wars, and Economic and Financial Shocks. What Strategies are Needed to Increase Exports and Ensure Italy's Economic Security?” with a session dedicated to “Market Diversification, Security of Supply and Export Resilience”. During the meeting, export strategies were explored in light of the complex geopolitical situation and the effects of the instability of the global energy market on the economy, with agriculture being identified as the second-most affected sector by geopolitical tensions. It may therefore be useful, given the need for companies to improve their ability to navigate foreign markets and identify new ones, to share some assessments of two variables that have been impacting, and certainly not just now, companies' foreign activities: the system of international sanctions and the performance of the currencies that dominate international trade, particularly the dollar. These factors are of great importance if we consider that approximately 50% of global trade is denominated in US dollars (USD), compared to an 11% share of global exports by the United States, and that the sanctions system – as explored in a Chatham House Report from July 2025 – has now become a formidable instrument of foreign and economic policy. According to the study, at the end of 2023, 596 sanctions measures were in place globally, including military, commercial, and financial measures. Such a widespread use of the sanctions regime raises the question of the effectiveness, enforcement and unintended consequences of sanctions, as well as their impact on international standards, on the conditions of the populations of the sanctioned countries, and also on those of consumers and businesses in the sanctioning countries.