International trade: financial risks and the role of the dollar
The US dollar continues to be the reference currency for international transactions, despite the deteriorating geopolitical situation. An AI crash, a global debt crisis and “weaponization" are risk factors for the stability of the dollar
Given the dollar's role in global trade, the US currency is a major focus for those operating in non-EU markets. The authoritative Economist Intelligence Unit's late-March forecasts do not predict that this role will be affected by current geopolitical crises. First of all because the strength of the dollar is inextricably linked to its significant weight in the international payments system, as well as to the size of the US Treasury bond market. Invoicing in dollars has a knock-on effect on both USD payments for transactions and financing, as is the case for Italian operators who may consider the benefits of requesting USD financing (for import/export advances or on a contract basis) for transactions in this currency. Moreover, generally speaking, given the “depth” of the USD on the international market, risk hedging instruments are often more competitive than those used with other currencies.
There are also specific situations to take into account, such as the participation of a company in a transnational supply chain or an operation linked to a commodity (e.g. cereals or petroleum products). In the first case, if the supply chain is outside the EU, the use of the dollar throughout the supply chain is prevalent and is a factor in mitigating currency risk. If the value chain is located in the Mediterranean area (the Balkans, North Africa, including Turkey) Italian companies could reasonably negotiate the use of the euro with their partners. In the case of the commodities, many of these are traditionally quoted in USD, and therefore the underlying contracts are very often denominated in this currency as well. In this scenario, the alternatives of the Yuan and the Euro are not expected to significantly affect the role of the dollar, even if China has pushed the yuan in international transactions through a substantial dual currency regime, which led to about half of payments being received in yuan, almost equaling the amount of those made in USD. In terms of SWIFT transactions, China now has an 8.5% share, higher than that of the Euro which, however, is still considered unable to assume global leadership, especially due to the currency's governance characteristics.
In the analysis, some elements of risk for the American currency are mentioned. An AI industry crash, a global debt crisis, and also the “weaponization” of the dollar, meaning its use a tool of geopolitical pressure through sanctions measures, could reduce the use of the US currency. In conclusion, the EIU assessment does not deem the currency depreciation in the period 2025-26 to be a sign of a de-dollarization process. On the other hand, analysts' forecasts indicate a recovery in the first part of 2026, with a subsequent gradual downward trend phase. Furthermore, it is not believed that the US Administration will adopt specific measures to depreciate the currency, as also demonstrated by the Genius ACT passed in 2025, which regulates the issue of stable coins (digital currency pegged to the dollar).
