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"Business Barometer", a downward trend for European enterprises

A survey carried out in cooperation with managers showed a presumable downward trend of domestic market in the months to come, with a reduction of job opportunities. In Hannover is also expected the meeting of Agrievolution, the Global Alliance for the Manufacturing Associations, that will take place in Germany before the general summit in New Dehli in December, during EIMA Agrimach

by the editorial staff
october/november 2013 | Back

The International Exhibition of Agrilevante, held in Bari from 17 to 20 October, gave the opportunity for an update of the situation of agricultural machinery in the Mediterrenean area, (with an upward trend most of all in Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Greece and the Balkans). In the same way the exhibition of Hannover will be the perfect location to "take the pulse" of the global market, with a specific attention to Europe and countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom which represent with Italy the greatest machinery purchasers in the continental area.

The Agrievolution Economic Committee is the board for economic analysis of the main global machinery manufacturing countries (the EU, Brasil, Korea, India, Russia, United States and Turkey) and will meet at Agritechnica 2013. During the meeting of Agrevolution, a remarkable importance will be given to the economic reports by Cema. The European Association of Manufacturers has sistematically monitorized the continental market and will illustrate the report on new vehicle registrations in the first nine months of the year (period January-September). After the result of the first half year, with a 3% decrease in the overall sales, compared with the same period in 2012, a further downward trend should be confirmed this year, as it was expected by analysts and workers of the sector.

This could be partly considered functional after the overall increase registered in the last two seasons especially for the main players France and Germany. The feeling of a market slowdown was confirmed by the October survey of the "Business Barometer", a monitoring system created by Cema and based on the forecast expressed by a sample of 135 senior managers from nine countries.

The system takes into account elements such as the market's present and future situation, the portfolio of orders, the country's generational turnover, production plans developed by enterprises and levels of employment rates as parameters of the welfare and the economic perspectives. The October Baromether highlighted that, after a production increase of 3% in Europe in September and a 3% downward trend in orders followed by a 5% increase in the export and an in orders as well (+3%), a decrease in domestic markets is expected, especially in France, Italy and the CIS Regions (Commonwealth of Indipendent States).

On a short-term period a market growth is expected in Spain and United Kingdom. The forecast shows a general sales increase, even though reduced, if compared with the first half year's levels. Currently the 43% of the sample considers the business trend as "satisfactory", (the 45% in August), and the 29% "good" (compared to the 34% of August). Concerning the forecast for the next six months, the 35% of the sample forsees a real increase (against the 37% in August) and 26% forsees a decrease (20% in August). The effects on occupational levels are not positive, with 13% of the managers forseeing reductions of permanent workers versus a 12% increases.

The impact on short-terms workers should be heavier, with a foreseen reduction of 39% and only a 6% increase. Regarding global markets, the meeting of Hannover will offer a general view which is important for monitoring the situation of the emerging countries in newly industrialized areas.

On the other hand, the meeting of Agritechnica has to be considered as preparatory to the wider Convention that Agrievolution will hold during the first week of December in New Dehli, India, during the Eima Agrimach International Trade Fair – organized by FederUnacoma in cooperation with the Indian Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry FICCI. This trade fair represents the country's main event in the sector of agricultural mechanization.

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