Zambia, a country rich of potential but poor in technology
A country strongly unbalanced on the copper extraction industry but with the primary sector playing a key role in the economic system. More than half of Zambia's workforce is in fact involved in this sector which produces 5.3% of GDP, with huge possibilities for growth despite a significant lack of mechanization
In the turbulent framework of the African geopolitics, Zambia is a relatively quiet oasis. This country, located in the central-southern part of Africa, is independent since 1964, when the former British colony was still called Northern Rhodesia and the name Zambia came with the farewell to the royal government.
Zambia has known periods of political turbulence, although not comparable to those experienced by the neighboring Congo, devastated by a long civil war; or of nearby Angola, where a fratricidal conflict, derived from the Cold War, lasted for about thirty years. And if, as highlighted by a report by the Italian Foreign Ministry, there are “signals of involution and exacerbation of the political dialectic, with an increase in the conflict between the government and the opposition parties,” Zambia shows anyway a certain “maturity and democratic stability.” A stability that is lacking in Mozambique, which is the theatre of an intense armed conflict, and in Zimbabwe, where the Mugabe era has ended after over 35 years.
The strong contrasts of a territory
suspended between poverty and development
In short, the main emergency that this country seems to be facing is more linked to a substantial fragility of the economic and social system, rather than of the political one. A figure for all: with an extension equal to twice Italy and a population of just 16 million of people (one quarter of the Italian one), Zambia ranks among the first countries in the world for infant mortality and incidence of HIV infection in the 15-49 age group (14.3% according to Unicef.) Moreover, compared to an annual GDP per capita of just over 4,000 dollars (according to the 2017 IMF survey), more that half of the population lives below the poverty line. However, the figure on the GDP per capita may be also seen under a different perspective. In fact, although not comparable to that of the most robust economies, it is one of the highest values in the African continent, and it is much higher – for instance – than the 1,200 dollars in Malawi or the 800 dollars in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The fact that Zambia is a territory rich in contrasts, seems to be confirmed by the Human Development Index, an indicator designed by the UN to measure, in addition to purely economic values, other variables such as life expectancy and the rate of literacy. According to the UN ranking, a sort of ranking of the world’s welfare, the central-southern African country is located in the lower positions (in 2016 it was in fact 139th on 188 countries) but before many other African nations. Furthermore, since 2000, Lusaka has experienced an almost uninterrupted expansionary phase, with a GDP growth rate almost invariably higher than 4% per year, while the unemployment rate was, according to the World Bank, between 1991 and 2012, more than halved, going from 19% to 7.8%. This vigorous growth path, however, does not erase the significant unequalities of an economic and social system in which more than half of the population lives on less than two dollars a day.
The economy of “red gold”
Many of Zambia’s imbalances can be attributed to a dynamic but still fragile production system, strongly unbalanced on extraction activities (nickel, manganese, coal, cadmium, and lead) and, most of all, on the copper supply chain, of which Lusaka is among the main world producers (and the second one in Africa after the Democratic Republic of the Congo.) “The strong polarization on copper – as reported by the American intelligence – which represents almost all exports, exposes the country to fluctuations in the market of raw materials.” Until 2015 the price of copper was supported by the Chinese demand and this fact drove the local economy with a leverage effect on other sectors. “Positive effects – as it was explained by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs – included the building sector, protagonist of a substantial growth induced by the increase in the demand for residential houses and by the civil works of modernization of the infrastructure system.” With the following stagnation of the Chinese demand and, consequently, the collapse of copper prices, the scenario has dramatically changed. The growth of GDP (however positive), suffered a sharp slowdown and the urgency of diversifying economic activities has strongly emerged. Among the priorities of intervention, identified by the government to turn on again the economic development, are included the infrastructural development and agriculture. The latter, despite producing a GDP percentage equal to 5.3% (while the industry and services have, respectively, 35.6% and 59%), represents the main source of employment for the inhabitants of Zambia. In fact, according to a study carried out by Nomisma for FederUnacoma, more than half of the workforce is employed in the primary sector.
An agriculture rich of potential, but poor in technology
On the other hand, the country has, due to its climatic and geomorphological characteristics (despite periods of drought, a good water supply is always available), a strong predisposition for agriculture. The main products are corn, peanuts, cassava, soybeans, cotton and tobacco, even if the primacy – in terms of production value – is attributed to meat, milk and eggs. Zambia’s agricultural vocation is also confirmed by the figure referring to the Used Agricultural Surface that, as reported by Nomisma, between 2004 and 2014 increased by one million hectares (with a total of 23.8 million). The value of the agricultural production has also increased and reached 2.1 billion dollars in 2014. “Zambia’s geographic position – as explained by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs – makes it particularly suitable for exports.” However, explained in this regard the Ministry, the processing compartment, as well as the logistic one, need new invetsments. Technologies and machinery are the weak point of a sector with huge growth possibilities. This sector can make a fundamental contribution to the development of this country and, as a consequence, to the emancipation from poverty. In 2014, the then Minister of Agriculture Wylbur Chisiya Simuusa, on his intervention in the South African forum entitled “The European House-Ambrosetti” pointed out this aspect, underlying how the lands of his country were perfect for agriculture, but the lack of investments prevented the sector from expressing its full potential. “Zambia – these are the words of the Minister reported by the magazine AgroNotizie – is a developing country and we do not have such strong financial muscles, capital and technology such as tractors and agricultural machines.” According to a 2012 study carried out by the World Bank, the machinery fleet would count about 6000 tractors (but these are only estimates), mainly concentrated in the larger farms. In the medium and small-sized farms instead, the rate of mechanization is still extremely low with a prevalence of manual work and animal traction. The technology deficit is also confirmed by the above-mentioned study by Nomisma. According to the report by the research institute, in 2013 the number of machines available was equal to 215 vehicles every 100,000 hectares, considering both agricultural machines and tractors (2 and 4 wheels). This is one of the highest figures of sub-Saharan Africa (in Nigeria, for example, it is equal to 66 machines every 100,000 hectares), which is however completely unsuitable to guarantee satisfactory productivity levels for local agriculture. “In Zambia, – wrote the World Bank in this regard – there is a huge latent demand for tractors, especially among small farmers.” The gap between demand and supply in the primary sector can also be explained by an important production deficit of the country, which is unable to satisfy the internal demand for mechanical means. Therefore, Zambia has to resort to imports from abroad (equal to about 59 million dollars in 2016, including tractors and agricultural machinery), especially from South Africa, China, India and the USA, which are the country’s main suppliers, with a strong prevalence of protection and irrigation systems (equal to 26% of the country’s total import), movement and transport vehicles, livestock solutions, soil tillage and seeding technology. In this framework, the role played by Italy is secondary, both as commercial partner of Zambia and, specifically, as supplier of agricultural machinery. But, considering the potential offered by this sector, the technologies applied to the primary sector should be the lever through which it will be possible to strengthen the ties between these countries. Much will depend on the initiatives and the strategic choices adopted to relaunch Zambia’s agricultural system and on those aimed at strengthening the economic cooperation at the governmental level between Rome and Lusaka.
